【摘要】 该文在对中国生猪养殖业碳排放量进行测算的基础上,利用协整分析和格兰杰因果检验分析国内猪肉价格和猪肉进口价格对中国生猪养殖业碳排放量的影响。结果表明:中国生猪养殖业碳排放量与国内猪肉价格以及与猪肉进口价格均存在长期正向均衡关系;国内猪肉价格是生猪养殖业碳排放量的格兰杰原因,而生猪养殖业碳排放量并不是国内猪肉价格的格兰杰原因;猪肉进口价格与中国生猪养殖业碳排放量互为格兰杰原因。猪肉价格波动通过对生猪生产者行为的影响,实现了对生猪养殖业碳排放量的正向影响。因此,要减少中国生猪养殖业碳排放量,需要稳定猪肉价格、适度扩大猪肉进口和加快生猪养殖方式的转变。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the calculation of carbon emissions from pig breeding industry in China, the paper analyzes the effects of the domestic pork price and the import price of pork on carbon emissions from pig breeding industry in China by cointegration analysis and Grainger causality test. The results show that there is long-term positive equilibrium relationship between carbon emissions from pig breeding industry in China and domestic pork price and import price of pork. The domestic pork price is the Grainger cause of carbon emissions from pig breeding industry, but carbon emission from pig breeding industry is not the Grainger cause of domestic pork price. The import price of pork and carbon emission from pig breeding industry in China are the Grainger causes for each other. The fluctuation of pork price has positive impact on carbon emissions of pig breeding industry by influencing the behavior of pig producers. Thus, in order to reduce carbon emissions from pig breeding industry in China, it is necessary to stabilize pork price, expand pork import moderately and speed up the transformation of pig breeding mode.更多还原