【摘要】 文章以安徽省桐城市为研究区,选取高程、坡度、坡向、工程地质岩组、与断裂带的距离、与水系的距离及与道路的距离为区域地质灾害易发性评价因子,运用层次分析(analytic hierarchy process, AHP)法对传统信息量模型(information value model, IVM)的评价结果进行加权分析,确定改进信息量模型(improved information value model, IIVM);结合地理信息系统(geographic information system, GIS)对桐城市地质灾害的易发性进行评价,将研究区划分为高易发区、中易发区、低易发区及不易发区4类,研究区主要为不易发区和低易发区,中、高易发区占比28.68%(主要位于研究区西北部);使用受试者工作特征(receiver operating characteristic, ROC)曲线进行评估,IIVM评价结果的曲线下面积(area under the curve, AUC)值为0.807 7,高于传统IVM,说明IIVM具有更高的精度和有效性。评价结果与研究区地质灾害实际调查情况相符合,可为该区域地质灾害防治提供有效参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper evaluated the susceptibility of geological hazards in Tongcheng City, Anhui Province with evaluation factors including the elevation, slope gradient, slope aspect, engineering geological rock group, distance to faults, distance to rivers and distance to roads. The analytic hierarchy process(AHP) model was used to weight the evaluation results of the traditional information value model(IVM) to determine the improved information value model(IIVM). Based on geographic information system(GIS) and the new model, the susceptibility index values were reclassified into four susceptibility classes from high to low to complete the evaluation of the susceptibility of geological hazards in Tongcheng City. The results showed that the study area was mainly stable and low-prone areas, and the medium and high-prone areas accounted for 28.68%, mainly located in the northwest of the study area. The performance was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve. The value of area under the curve(AUC) for the result of IIVM was 0.807 7, higher than that for the traditional model, indicating that the improved model has better validity and accuracy. The evaluation results were basically the same as the conclusions of geological hazard investigation and qualitative analysis, which can provide reference for disaster prevention and reduction in the region.更多还原