【摘要】 京津冀农村能源发展不平衡,津冀农村煤炭消费比例较高,由此带来严重的环境问题。基于2002—2018年的相关数据,分析京津冀农村生活能源消费变化,运用LMDI方法对其能源消费总量的影响效应进行测度。研究表明:京津冀农村生活能源消费结构逐步由传统的单一化、粗放化向多样化、商品化、清洁化的方向发展;生活能源的消费总量下降是正向推动因素和负向抑制因素共同作用的结果。其中,人均可支配收入对能源消费总量的影响效应起到正向促进作用,而能源消费结构、能源消费强度和人口规模都对能源消费总量的影响效应起到负向作用,导致能源消费总量减少,能源消费强度是近年来最为显著的影响因素。建议进一步降低生活能源消费强度,因地制宜调整京津冀农村能源政策,促进能源消费结构转型升级。更多还原

【Abstract】 The rural energy development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is unbalanced, and the proportion of coal consumption in the rural areas of the Tianjin-Hebei region is relatively high, causing serious environmental problems. Based on the relevant data from 2002 to 2018, this paper analyzes the changes in rural energy consumption in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and uses the LMDI method to measure the effect of its total energy consumption. Research shows that the rural energy consumption structure of BeijingTianjin-Hebei is gradually changing from traditional simplification and extensiveness to diversification,commercialization, and cleanliness; the decline in the total consumption of domestic energy is a combination of positive driving factors and negative restraining factors. As a result, the per capita disposable income played a positive role in promoting the effect of total energy consumption, while the structure of energy consumption, energy consumption intensity and population size all played a negative role in the effect of total energy consumption, leading to a reduction in total energy consumption. Energy consumption intensity is the most significant influencing factor in recent years. It is recommended to further reduce the intensity of domestic energy consumption, adjust the rural energy policy of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei according to local conditions, and promote the optimization of energy consumption structure.更多还原