【摘要】 自由贸易协定的建立有效促进了双边贸易,但原产地规则对双边贸易有较大的约束作用。本文利用两阶段OLS方法,研究了原产地规则对自由贸易协定异质性贸易效应的影响。文章构建了标准化的原产地规则赋值体系,对我国现有自由贸易协定的原产地规则进行了量化。基于扩展的贸易引力模型,利用2002—2017年数据,测算了我国现有自由贸易协定的异质性贸易效应,并在第二阶段回归中估算了差异化的原产地规则对自由贸易协定贸易效应的影响。实证结果表明,贸易效应在自由贸易协定之间和自由贸易协定内部存在广泛的异质性,原产地规则对自由贸易协定贸易效应存在削减作用,制度性规则和程序性规则的差异对自由贸易协定之间贸易效应异质性的影响较大,而特定商品规则的差异则更多引起自由贸易协定内部贸易效应的异质性。由于原产地规则彼此隔绝,严格程度各异,自由贸易的红利释放并不充分。在自由贸易协定谈判中,还需制定彼此融合、判定精准的原产地规则。更多还原

【Abstract】 Although the establishment of a Free Trade Agreement( FTA) has effectively promoted bilateral trade,its rules of origin have a quite significant constraining to the bilateral trade. This article investigates the impact of the rules of origin on the heterogeneous trade effects of FTAs using a two-stage OLS( Ordinary Least Squares) method. In this paper,a standard assignment system about rules of origin is constructed,and the rules of origin are quantified based on the current FTAs China has in place. Moreover,based on the data from 2002 to 2017 and having taken advantage of an expanded trade gravity model,the heterogeneous trade effects of FTAs in China is measured. The influence of differentiated rules of origin on the trade effects of FTAs is also estimated and calculated in the second stage of the regression analysis. The empirical results show that there is extensive heterogeneity in trade effects between and within FTAs,and rules of origin have a mitigating effect on the trade effects of FTAs. Differences between institutional rules and procedural rules have a greater impact on the heterogeneity of trade effects between different FTAs. However,differences in product-specific rules contribute more to heterogeneity in the internal trade effects of FTAs. Furthermore,due to the isolation and different levels of strictness of the rules of origin,the welfare of free trade has not been fully achieved.Therefore,in negotiating FTAs,it is necessary to formulate well-integrated and accurate rules of origin.更多还原