【摘要】 基于中国和中东欧十六国贸易面板数据,运用双重差分模型分析中欧班列开行对中国-中东欧国家贸易及贸易结构(包括进出口结构和商品种类结构)产生的影响。结果表明:中欧班列的通行对中国-中东欧国家贸易总体上产生了显著的促进作用,但贸易效应主要体现在中国对中东欧国家的出口贸易上,对进口贸易的影响较弱;在商品种类结构方面,中欧班列有利于中国-中东欧制成品贸易,且对制成品出口贸易的影响更大,而对初级产品贸易影响相对较小;此外,中欧班列对机械产品贸易尤其出口贸易产生了显著的正效应。这说明,中欧班列的开通并没有改变现阶段中国-中东欧国家贸易的结构特征,而是进一步强化了现有结构特征。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the panel data of the trade between China and 16 Central & Eastern European countries(China-CEE countries),this paper uses difference-in-difference model to assess the impact that the CRE has made on China-CEE countries trade.Conclusions show that: The running of CRE has a significant positive effect on China-CEE countries trade,and the effect on China’s export to CEE countries is much stronger than that on China’s import from CEE countries; As regards the commodity category structure,CRE is conducive to enlarging manufactured goods trade between China and CEE counties.And,similarly,it has greater impact on export trade.However,the impact on trade in primary products is relatively small and mainly reflects on import; CRE has a significant positive effect on trade in machinery products,especially on export trade.Above conclusions show that the opening of CRE did not change the structural features of China-CEE countries trade at the present stage,but further strengthened the existing structural features.更多还原