【摘要】 德钦县是云南省地质灾害点发育最多的县城之一,由于高陡的地形及复杂的地质条件,导致县城周边发育多处滑坡、泥石流灾害。通过现场地质勘查和分析,该泥石流沟为一处潜在的单沟泥石流,对县城周边聚居区及G214国道造成潜在威胁,因此对巨水沟泥石流的危险性评价具有重要作用。本次研究分析了巨水沟泥石流的形成条件,选用12个评价指标作为泥石流主要影响因子,采用AHP方法确定各指标对泥石流影响的权重,并利用模糊综合评判理论进行泥石流危险性评价。结果表明,该泥石流沟危险等级通过模糊综合评判法确定为高度危险,应加强防灾减灾治理措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 Deqin county is one of the counties with the most developed geological disaster sites in Yunnan Province. Due to the high and steep terrain and complicated geological conditions,many landslides and mud-rock flows have developed around the county. Through the field geological survey and analysis,it is found that The gully meets the basic conditions for the development of debris flow. The gully is a potential single gully debris flow,which poses a potential threat to the settlement area around the county and G214 national highway. Therefore,it plays an important role in the risk assessment of debris flow in gully. Thisstudy analyzes the formation conditions of debris flow inJushui drain,selects 12 evaluation indexes as the main influence factors of debris flow,uses AHP method to determine the weight of each index on debris flow,and uses fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory to evaluate the risk of debris flow. The results show that the hazard level of the debris flow gully is highly dangerous,and the prevention and mitigation measures should be strengthened.更多还原