【摘要】 针对当前变压器状态评价模糊性大、评估指标片面、指导性不强的问题,提出了一种基于WPHM模型和模糊综合评估的变压器健康状态评价方法。首先从电气、油化、油气和物理4种性质出发建立两级状态指标体系,提高了评估全面性和信息采集效率;然后以二级指标为基础构建WPHM模型来全面分析一级指标风险,并采用威布尔概率图法和极大似然估计法估算参数,提高了参量的计算速度;最后结合最优可用度理论构建隶属度函数,从而得到变压器风险度与状态的模糊关系,在变权重的作用下得出变压器整体的风险水平。经过实例分析验证,该评价方法客观准确、便捷有效,在工程中具有良好的实用性,能够为变压器的检修提供指导与帮助。更多还原

【Abstract】 Aiming at solving condition evaluation problems such as large fuzziness, one-sided evaluation index and weak guidance, this paper puts forward a transformer condition evaluation method based on WPHM model and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. This method firstly establishes a two-stage condition index system from four properties of electricity, oilization, gas and physics, which improves the evaluation comprehensiveness and information acquisition efficiency. Then, WPHM model is built to comprehensively analyze the risk of primary index based on the secondary index, and the parameters are estimated by Weibull probability graph method and maximum likelihood estimation method, which improves the computational speed of the parameters. Finally, combined with the theory of optimal availability, the membership function is constructed and used to obtain the fuzzy relation between transformer risk degree and condition, and then the overall risk level of transformer is obtained under the action of variable weight. After a case study, the evaluation method is proved to be objective, accurate, convenient and effective, which has good practicability in engineering and can provide guidance and help for transformer maintenance.更多还原