【摘要】 根据自然灾害风险评估理论,采用层次分析法(AHP法),利用绍兴市闪电定位数据、地理信息数据、人口及经济数据等,对雷电灾害风险区划进行研究,建立评价指标与风险评估的定量关系。结合GIS技术,分析绍兴市致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性以及区域承灾体暴露度的分布特点,基于风险区划评估模型,绘制了绍兴市雷电灾害风险区划图。结果表明:极高风险区主要位于新昌县的东南部、诸暨市的中部及北部、嵊州市与诸暨市的接壤处;高风险区主要分布于新昌县的南部、嵊州市的西部、上虞市的东部沿线;其余大部分地区为一般风险等级。开展地区雷电灾害风险区划,能够有效规避风险,为项目规划及防雷等级判定提供必要的参考依据,为防灾减灾工作提供理论支撑。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the guideline of the assessment of natural disaster risk theory, using the analytic hierarchy process( AHP),the author aims at the risk zoning of lightning disaster and establishes the quantitative relation between the assessment indexes and the risk zoning, combined with lightning location, geo-information, population and economic data. Based on GIS, considering the risk of disaster-inducing factors, sensitivity of environment of breeding disasters, exposure of hazard-affected bodies, the result of risk zoning of lightning disaster over Shaoxing is achieved via the assessment model. It shows that the highest risk is mainly located in the southeast of Xinchang, the middle and north of Zhuji, the border of Shengzhou and Zhuji; the higher risk is mainly lied in the south of Xinchang, the west of Shengzhou, the east of Shangyu; the other areas belong to the common risk. The establishment of the risk zoning of lightning disaster can avoid risks effectively, and provide necessary reference for planning the project and determining the level of lightning protection. In the meantime, the support in theory is provided for disaster prevention and mitigation.更多还原