【摘要】 基于2000年和2010年人口普查分县数据,综合应用探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)、空间变差函数和空间计量方法,探讨了东北县域人口老龄化空间格局演变特征及影响因素.结果表明:东北地区人口老龄化呈现出自西向东、自北向南逐渐加深的空间格局,高-高和低-低集聚特征显著;10年间高-高集聚区由南向北扩展,低-低集聚区由北部向南收缩,整体的空间集聚态势和空间自组织性有所减弱,空间差异有所减小,最终导致老龄化成为多数县域面临的常态.这种格局的形成及演变的特征与当地特殊的人口、经济和社会因素密切相关.其中,出生率和死亡率始终具有主导作用,迁出率、经济发展水平、医疗卫生条件、城市化率的影响也较为突出.更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on ESDA,spatial variogram and spatial econometric model,this paper described the population aging space pattern evolution characteristics and its influencing factors in Northeast China.The results are as follows:the population aging in Northeast China showed a spatial pattern that gradually deepened from west to east and from north to south,and the characteristics of high-high and low-low agglomeration are significant.From 2000 to 2010,the high-high clusters expanded from south to north,and the low-low clusters contracted from the north to the south.The overall spatial agglomeration situation and spatial self-organization were weakened,and the spatial difference was reduced,eventually leading to aging becoming the norm in most counties in 2010.The spatial pattern evolution of population aging reflects the impact of local special population,economic and social factors.Among them,the birth rate and mortality rate are always the dominant factors,and the impact of population migration rate,economic development level,medical and health conditions,and urbanization rate is also prominent.更多还原