【摘要】 为深入分析中国草莓出口的阶段特征及其原因,利用恒定市场份额(constantmarketshare,CMS)模型,对2000—2018年中国草莓出口的阶段波动特征展开系统分析,以期为理解草莓阶段波动原因提供参考依据。结果表明:2000—2008年的增长以二阶效应为主,主要贡献国家为俄罗斯、德国和美国;2008—2009年的降低以结构效应为主,主要受德国进口变动的制约;2009—2011年的增长则以结构效应为主,主要贡献来自德国、韩国、泰国和俄罗斯;2011—2015年的降低以竞争力效应为主,主要受德国、英国、日本和美国进口波动的影响;2015—2016年的上升也是以竞争力效应为主,主要贡献国是日本和俄罗斯;2016—2018年的降低则受竞争效应和二阶效应的双重影响,其中竞争效应主要来自日本、美国和俄罗斯。二阶效应主要来自俄罗斯。影响各阶段出口特征的产品均以冷冻草莓为主。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to deeply analyze the stage characteristics and causes of China′s strawberry export,used constant market share model to systematically analyze the stage fluctuation characteristics of China′s strawberry export from 2000 to 2018,in order to provide a reference for understanding the reason of strawberry stage fluctuation.The results showed that the second-order effect was the main contribution to the growth from 2000 to 2008,and the main contributors were Russia,Germany and the United States.From 2008 to 2009,the decrease was mainly due to the structural effect,which was mainly restricted by the change of German imports.The growth from 2009 to 2011 was mainly structural effect,and the main contribution comes from Germany,South Korea,Thailand and Russia.From 2011 to 2015,the decrease was mainly due to the competitiveness effect,which was mainly affected by the import fluctuations of Germany,the United Kingdom,Japan and the United States.From 2015 to 2016,the increase was mainly due to the competitiveness effect,and the main contributors were Japan and Russia.the decrease from 2016 to 2018 was affected by both competitive effect and second-order effect.The competitive effect mainly comes from Japan,the United States and Russia.The second-order effect mainly comes from Russia.Frozen strawberries were the main products that affect the export characteristics of each stage.更多还原