【摘要】 为解决城市安全风险评估研究中事故、风险源与风险的关系,本文讨论简单风险、复合风险的概念,从事故和风险源之间的事故时间链角度分析风险源与事故的内在关联性,阐述"违法、隐患、风险"的关系。建立包括风险源能量、初始触发因素、外界目标的风险源三角形模型,并分析风险源—事故耦合关系。研究表明:风险源和事故由风险联系起来,风险的大小由违法、隐患和固有风险决定。根据风险评估结果,提出简单风险与重特大责任事故责任预警、自然灾害与事故灾难结合预警、重特大责任事故预警、复合风险预警、大数据预警的5大预警模式,为风险预警决策提供技术参考依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to solve the relationships among accident,risk source and risk in the study of urban safety risk assessment,in this paper,the concepts of simple risk and composite risk are discussed,the internal relationship between risk source and accident is analyzed from the perspective of accident time chain,the relationships among violation of law,hidden danger and risk are expounded.A triangle model of risk source including risk source energy,initial trigger element and external target is established.The coupling relationship between risk source and accident is analyzed.The researches show that risk source and accident are connected by risk,and the degree of risk is determined by the violation of law,hidden danger and inherent risk.According to the results of risk assessment,five early warning modes,i.e.simple risk and major liability accident,natural and accident disaster,major and extra serious accident,composite risk,and big data,are put forward to provide technology reference for early risk warning and decision-making.更多还原