【摘要】 研究目的:揭示"倒挂型"土地利用总体规划与耕地保护效果之间的关系,以期为国土空间规划的编制提供参考。研究方法:倾向值匹配法。研究结果:(1)耕地"倒挂型"规划对耕地面积净变化的影响具有统计显著性,2006—2008年,耕保指标"倒挂型"规划使耕地面积净变化量平均减少2.270万hm2;(2)2010—2016年,耕保指标"倒挂型"规划使耕地面积净变化量平均减少0.496万hm2;(3)建设用地"倒挂型"规划对耕地面积净变化量并无显著影响。研究结论:在省级政府耕地保护责任目标考核的制度环境下,耕地"倒挂型"规划对地方政府形成一定压力,促使各级政府采取措施加以应对,从而使得"倒挂型"规划在一定程度上降低了耕地净减少量。更多还原

【Abstract】 The purpose of this paper is to assess the effect of "CLEA" or "BHEA" land-use plans on cultivated land preservation, given that the phenomenon of "Cap Lower than Existing Amount"(CLEA) or "Bottom Higher than Existing Amount"(BHEA) is commonly observed in land-use planning and implementation of China but no studies examining the impact of "CLEA" or "BHEA" plan on cultivated land preservation. The method of Propensity Score Matching was used. The research results show that: 1)there was statistical significance for the impact of "BHEA" plan with cultivated land preservation bottom higher than existing amount on the net change of cultivated land. From 2006 to 2008, the implementation of "BHEA" plan with only cultivated land bottom higher than existing amount significantly reduced the net change of cultivated land by 22 700 hm2. 2)From 2010 to 2016, the implementation of "BHEA" plan with only cultivated land bottom higher than existing amount significantly reduced the net change of cultivated land by 4 960 hm2. 3)There was no statistical significance for the impact of the implementation of "CLEA" plan with only construction land cap lower than existing amount. In conclusion, due to the system of performance assessment on provincial government’s cultivated land preservation responsibility, "BHEA" plan with only cultivated land bottom higher than existing amount exerts pressure on local governments, which results in the positive effect on cultivated land preservation.更多还原