【摘要】 新冠肺炎疫情在全球范围内的大流行对我国外贸和跨境投资产生了深远影响。本文首先分析了新冠肺炎疫情对我国对外贸易总量和结构的影响,阐述了疫情从外部需求、外贸主体和贸易条件三个方面对我国外贸发展带来的挑战,基于向量自回归模型、向量误差修正模型等计量经济模型和系统分析方法,对我国经济增长、国际经济形势和中美第一阶段经贸协议执行状况等设定两种不同情景,并分别分析和预测了2020年下半年我国的进出口形势,进而就疫情对我国产业外移的短期和中长期影响进行分析,展望了美国主导的全球价值链重构对我国产业转移的挑战,并提出以开放稳外贸、以扶持畅循环、以改革稳外资、以科技降风险等政策建议,以更好地推进我国新发展格局的构建。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Coronavirus(COVID-19)pandemic has brought significant impacts on China’s international trade and investment.This paper analyzed the impacts of COVID-19 on China’s exports and imports from the aspects of both the total amount and the structures.The Challenges brought about by COVID-19 on China’s foreign trade development were studied from the perspectives of the international demand,the foreign trade agents,and the terms of trade.By integrating the econometric models and the system analysis method,this paper forecasted China’s exports and imports for the second half of the 2020 year under two scenarios.The impacts of the pandemic on China’s industry transfer in the short term and in the long term are discussed,with the risk of the global value chain restructure dominated by US prospected.Finally,this paper proposed suggestions for improving the new development mode,including promoting the opening-up to stabilize the international trade,increasing subsidies to facilitate the economic circulation,advancing reforms to attract foreign direct investment,and stimulating the technology development to mitigate the risk.更多还原