【摘要】 应用1960-2017年吉林省24个台站日降水量资料,定义4个极端降水指数,采用Mann-Kendall趋势分析、相关性分析、累积距平分析等方法,对吉林省极端降水事件时空分布特征进行了分析。结果表明:吉林省极端降水阈值大值区位于吉林省中部和南部,东部山区站点极端降水阈值相对较小。吉林省夏季极端降水主要集中在7月下旬和8月上旬,吉林省南部和中部的集安、通化、临江、靖宇、梅河口、磐石、桦甸地区,因极端降水量和频数都较大,是灾害应急管理需重点关注的地区;其中,通化、集安地区因4个极端降水指数都很高,是吉林省极端降水灾害性风险最高的地区。吉林省各站点极端降水指数变化M-K趋势检验中,长岭站极端降水事件呈显著减少趋势;二道站呈显著增加趋势;其他站点无显著增减趋势。1960-2017年吉林省极端降水量和强度呈波动变化,但整体平稳,无明显增加和减少趋势。更多还原

【Abstract】 With daily precipitation data of 24 observational stations in Jilin Province from 1960 to 2017, four extreme precipitation indices are defined. Using means of Mann-Kendall trend analysis, correlation analysis and accumulative anomaly analysis, the extreme precipitation events are analyzed. The results show that: the distribution of extreme precipitation threshold of the extreme precipitation events mainly occur in the central and south of Jilin Province, while the distribution of the extreme precipitation events occur less frequently in the eastern mountain area. The extreme precipitation in Jilin Province is mainly concentrated in late July and early August,areas such as Ji’an, Tonghua, Linjiang, Jingju, Meihekou, Panshi, Huadian in the central and south of Jilin Province, should be paid more attention when taking risk management for their high precipitation frequency, and areas of Tonghua and Ji’an where the four precipitation indices are quite high, have the highest risk of suffering from the extreme precipitation events.With M-K trend test of the change of the extreme precipitation indices, it shows that the extreme precipitation frequency in Changling station shows an obvious decreasing tendency, while shows an obvious increasing tendency in Erdao station, and there is no significantly increasing or decreasing tendency in other stations. There is a fluctuate change of the precipitation and its frequency in Jilin Province from 1960 to 2017, while an overall stable change shows no significantly increasing or decreasing trend.更多还原