【摘要】 本文构建了一个内生性贸易不平衡的全球一般均衡数值模型系统,量化模拟并比较不同WTO改革情景对中国的潜在经济影响。模拟结果发现:中国单独退出"特殊和差别待遇(SDT)"将对中国的社会福利和GDP产生负面影响,但对制造业就业和对外贸易的影响为正;中国、巴西、印度和南非四个发展中国家同时退出"SDT"与中国单独退出的效应方向一致,但中国的受损下降;所有发展中国家都退出"SDT"中国的受损进一步减少;若WTO改革目标全部实现并推动了新一轮的全球贸易自由化,则中国的社会福利、GDP、制造业就业和对外贸易都会显著改善。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using a global general equilibrium numerical model system with endogenous trade imbalance, this paper simulates the potential economic impacts of different WTO reform scenarios on China. The simulation results show that:(1) China’s exiting "special and differential treatment"(SDT) alone will have a negative impact on China’s social welfare and GDP, but the impact on manufacturing employment and foreign trade is positive.(2) The simultaneous withdrawal of SDT from China, Brazil, India and South Africa is in line with the effect of China’s separate exit, but China’s damage has declined. If all developing countries have withdrawn from SDT, China’s losses will be further reduced.(3) If the WTO reform goals have all achieved and promoted a new round of global trade liberalization, China’s welfare, output, manufacturing employment and foreign trade will all improve significantly.更多还原