【摘要】 基于港口业主的物流服务需求和文献分析,构建粤港澳大湾区五个主要港口的物流服务水平指标体系,采用改进后的AHP算法和专家打分法进行评价赋值,建立衡量港口物流服务水平的云标尺,再通过云模型综合评价"深中通道"影响大湾区港口物流服务水平的期望值、熵值和超熵值,改善了港口物流服务评价中随机因素的不足,得出的云模型综合评价指标影响力相较于其他指标赋权的计算结果更加合理可靠。研究表明,"深中通道"对粤港澳大湾区港口物流的影响主要体现在珠海港、中山港进出口集装箱物流通道的重新选择上。具体而言,"深中通道"开通后,珠海北区原转运至珠海港约53%的集装箱货源,以及中山南区原转运至珠海港的全部集装箱货源将完全被"深中通道"分流,约占珠海全港货源的17%和3%左右;中山南区原转运至中山港约35%的集装箱货源将被"深中通道"分流,约占中山全港外贸集装箱货源的8%左右。广州港和东莞港的集装箱港口物流业务则不会因"深中通道"的开通受到较大影响;珠海北部、中山南部或广州港的大宗散杂货源受"深中通道"开通的影响较小,仍保持原有港口物流分布态势。因此,需要大力开拓珠江西岸港口群的腹地资源,改善珠江东岸港口资源分配,提升港口现代物流服务优势,借力港澳,加强粤港澳大湾区港口间的协同合作与差异化发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the logistics service demand of port customers and the document analysis,the port logistics service level index system of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has been constructed. Using the evaluation of the better AHP algorithm and the expert scoring method,the authors establish the cloud scale to measure the level of port logistics service,then evaluate the impact of Shenzhen-Zhongshan Channel’s expectation,entropy and super entropy value of Greater Bay Area Port Logistics through the cloud model,and the lack of random factors in the evaluation of the port logistics impact service is improved. The influence of the resulting comprehensive evaluation index of cloud model is more reasonable and reliable than that of other indicators. The results show that the impact of Shenzhen-Zhongshan Channel on port logistics of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is mainly reflected in the re-selection of container logistics modes. After the opening of the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Channel,some container sources in Zhuhai and Zhongshan ports on the west bank of the Pearl River will be diverted to the Shenzhen and Hong Kong port group on the east bank of the Pearl River,while the port of Guangzhou and Dongguan will be less affected by this,and the bulk cargo supply will remain in the distribution of the original port logistics.Accordingly,Port enterprises on the west coast of the Pearl River should vigorously develop the hinterland,while port enterprises on the east bank of the Pearl River should improve the allocation of resources,and enhance the advantages of modern port logistics services. The port groups should make use of Hong Kong and Macao to strengthen the cooperative cooperation and differentiated development between the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area ports.更多还原