【摘要】 目的:构建医用装备诊疗检查需求预测的差分自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型,为管理决策提供参考依据。方法:以2013-2018年医院核磁共振(MR)诊疗检查数据为基础序列,应用SPSS统计软件建立ARIMA模型,运用拟合评价指标对预测模型进行拟合评价。选取2019年MR检查数据对预测数据进行精度检验,预测2020年MR检查数据。结果:构建的预测模型描述为ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,0)12,该模型拟合评价总体良好;2019年的数据精度检验评价合理且检验合格,预测数据在置信区间为95%的相对误差控制在-5.74%~5.82%,预测精度良好。该模型可用于2020年MR检查需求预测。结论:SPSS统计软件的运用简化了预测模型的构建、评价和应用,构建的ARIMA预测模型和预测数据可作为医疗机构进行医技排程统筹管理、医技资源整体调度、装备配置合理优化和诊疗服务满意提升的决策参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective: To construct an autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model which could predict the demand of the examination of diagnosis and treatment of medical equipment so as to provide reference for managerial decision. Methods: The data of diagnosis and treatment of magnetic resonance(MR) of hospital during 2013 year and 2018 year were used as basic sequence, and SPSS software was used to establish ARIMA prediction model, and the fitting evaluation indicators were used to implement fitting evaluation for prediction model. The MR examination data in 2019 year were selected to implement accuracy test for prediction data so as to predict MR examination data of 2020 year. Results: The constructed prediction model was described as ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,0)12. The fitting evaluation of this model was generally favorable. The accuracy test and evaluation of these data in 2019 were reasonable and qualified. The relative error of prediction data in the confidence interval with 95% was controlled within-5.74% and 5.82%, and the prediction accuracy of this model was favorable. And the model could be used in the prediction of the demand of MR examination in 2020 year. Conclusion: The application of SPSS software simplifies the construction, evaluation and application of the prediction model. The constructed ARIMA prediction model and prediction data can be used as a decision reference for medical institutions to carry out overall management of the scheduling of medical technique, overall dispatch of the resource of medical technique, reasonable optimization of equipment configuration, and the improvement of the satisfaction of medical service.更多还原