【摘要】 以2001年中国加入WTO美国授予中国永久正常贸易关系(PNTR)为准自然实验,利用双重差分法就地区贸易政策不确定性下降对地区产业结构升级的影响进行系统评估。研究发现:贸易政策不确定性下降显著促进了地区产业结构升级,该效应在美国授予中国PNTR地位后逐渐增强。贸易政策不确定性下降促进了地区创新,进而推动地区产业结构升级。与沿海地区相比,内陆地区的产业升级更加显著;与1998年前已经设有国家级开发区的城市相比,没有国家级开发区的城市升级效应更加明显。因此,在当前复杂的国际新形势下,中国政府应该积极参与并制定多边贸易规则,维持一个相对稳定的国际贸易环境,推动地区创新与产业结构升级。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, we take the permanent normal trade relationship(PNTR) status granted by the United States after China’s accession into WTO in 2001 as a quasi-experiment to systematically evaluate the impact of trade policy uncertainty(TPU) on regional industry structure upgrading by using difference-in-differences model. We find that:(1)Decrease in TPU significantly promotes regional industry structure upgrading, such effect enlarges as PNTR granted.(2) Mechanical test shows that TPU reduction promotes regional innovation, hence improves industry structure.(3)The effect of industry structure upgrading in cities within coastal provinces is smaller than cities within inland provinces; meanwhile the effect is also smaller in cities with special economic zone before 1998 than those without. Our empirical findings imply that under current complex international situation, Chinese government should actively participate in the establishment of multilateral trade rules and maintain a relatively stable trade environment to further promote regional innovation and industry structure upgrading.更多还原