【摘要】 基于2020年1月11日至7月31日中国各地市新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)数据,采用空间自相关和时空扫描统计量方法,探讨了中国境内COVID-19的空间聚集格局及其演变和时空聚集特征。结果表明:(1)1月19日开始至2月29日的各时段中国地市COVID-19患病率总体呈正空间聚集特征,聚集程度先升后降。(2)COVID-19患病率的局部高—高聚集区主要分布在武汉市及其周围地市,其范围呈先扩张再收缩后稳定趋势。低—低区主要分布在中国西部、西南、东北和华北地区,其范围逐步收缩至消失。高—低区零星散布在个别时段中。低—高区主要分布于高—高区周围并呈先外移再收缩后保持稳定态势。(3)在3月16日前的COVID-19时空热点区大多分布在武汉市及其以东、以西和以北的大片地带,为本次疫情严重流行区域,聚集时间从2020年1月底至2020年2月中,其余时空热点区零星散布于其它多地且对应时间短;3月16日后的时空热点区时空上呈现复杂多变的态势,其中扩散型时空热点区的相对危险程度显著高于境外输入型时空热点区。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the epidemic data of COVID-19 for prefecture-level cities in China from January 11 st to July 31 st,2020,this paper analyzed the spatial agglomeration pattern evolution and spatio-temporal agglomeration characteristics of COVID-19 using spatial autocorrelation and spatio-temporal scanning statistical methods. The results were obtained as follows:(1)In each period between January 19 th and February 29 th,the global positive spatial agglomeration characteristic was showed by the prevalence of COVID-19 at prefecture level in China,and the degree of the global agglomeration showed a trend of rising first and then falling.(2)The local high-high agglomeration area of the prevalence of COVID-19 was mainly distributed in Wuhan and its surrounding cities,and its coverage showed a trend of expanding first,then contracting,and then stabilizing. The low-low area was mainly distributed in the west,southwest,northeast and north of China,and gradually shrank to disappear. The high-low area scattered at individual cities of China in individual periods. The low-high area was mainly distributed around the high-high area,and moved outward first,then shrunk,and then kept stable.(3)Before March 16 th,most of the spatio-temporal hotspots of COVID-19 were distributed in Wuhan and large areas where were east,west and north of Wuhan,which were severe epidemic areas. Their clustering time was from the end of January 2020 to the middle of February 2020. The remaining spatio-temporal hotspots before March 16 th were sporadically scattered in some other places and the corresponding clustering time was short. After March 16 th the spatio-temporal hotspots showed a complex and changeable trend,among which the relative risk degrees of diffusion type hotspots were significantly higher than that of the oversea imported type.更多还原