【摘要】 应用常规观测资料、FNL1°×1°再分析资料以及FY-2E卫星云图观测资料,通过天气学分析法、指标验证法对陕西东部的区域性暴雨过程特点、形成原因以及预报着眼点进行分析和研究。结果表明:这次区域性暴雨是弱对流引发的暖区暴雨,尽管在卫星云图上没有形成强的对流云团和"上干冷、下暖湿"的垂直结构配置,但850 hPa的东风气流为暴雨区水汽和能量的输送显著;完整的次级环流是水汽和能量进行充分交换的主要机制;低层(850 hPa)东风风速的迅速增大和地面辐合线的形成是此次暴雨天气过程的预报着眼点。该研究对陕西东部弱对流引发的区域性暴雨的预报具有重要的参考作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 The purpose of this paper is to analyze and summarize the characteristics, causes and forecast focus of regional rainstorm in eastern Shaanxi based on routine observation data, FNL1 degree×1 degree reanalysis data and FY-2E satellite cloud chart observation data. The regional rainstorm was analyzed by synoptic analysis and index verification. The results show that the regional rainstorm is caused by the weak convective heavy rainfall in warm zones, and that weak convection performance has not formed strong convective clouds in the satellite images, which has no effect on the configuration of the system to form a"vertical structure configuration, under wet dry"; easterly wind 850 hPa gas flow is the main transport heavy rain area the water vapor and energy; the secondary circulation which is full of water vapor and energy are the main mechanism of full exchange; low layer(850 hPa)where the easterly wind speed increases rapidly and the surface convergence line are the forecasting focus of this stormy weather process. The study provides an effective technical support for the prediction of regional rainstorm caused by weak convection in eastern Shaanxi.更多还原