【摘要】 彩票悖论是三大归纳悖论之一。探讨彩票悖论的实质,对解答彩票悖论具有重要的意义。无论是经典的彩票悖论还是派生的彩票悖论,之所以被认为是"悖论"是因为对推理的彩票案例持可疑的判断。对可疑的彩票判断产生的原因,现有的解释有确证解释、出错可能性解释和统计解释三种。借用实验哲学的方法,图瑞和弗里德曼用实验证明这三种解释都是难以成立的,并试图用刻板表述来解释彩票案例产生的原因。理论的、实践的和实证的分析可以证明,彩票悖论并不是真正的悖论。更多还原

【Abstract】 The lottery paradox is one of the top three induction paradoxes. To solve the lottery paradox, it is essential to explore its essence. The reason why the classic lottery paradox and the derived lottery paradox are considered "paradoxes" is that the judgment of the reasoning lottery case is skeptical. There are three kinds of explanations for skeptical lottery judgment: explanation of justification, explanation of error likelihood, and explanation of statistics. Using the method of experimental philosophy, John Turri and Ori Friedman proved that these three explanations are untenable; they endeavored to explain the reasons of lottery cases with stereotyped expressions. Theoretical, practical and empirical analysis can prove that the lottery paradox is not a true paradox.更多还原