【摘要】 采用中国经济政策不确定性指数与长三角城市的面板数据,运用面板向量自回归模型研究了经济政策不确定性(EPU)对城市经济发展的影响与区域差异。结果显示,EPU对长三角城市群的经济增长、消费、投资产生短期的负向作用,对实际利用外贸(FDI)产生短期正向影响。进一步通过分区域研究发现,EPU对中心外围城市的经济增长和固定资产投资负向影响较大,对外围城市的消费和FDI负向影响更显著,对中心城市的消费和固定资产投资却产生短期正向影响。结论表明,政府在保持政策连续性和稳定性的前提下要关注不确定性的区域效应,外围城市要加快融入长三角中心区,积极推进长三角城市经济区域协调发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper adopts PVAR model to analyze the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU) on urban economic development and the regional effect by using EPU index and city panel data.The results show that the EPU has a short-term negative effect on the economic growth,consumption and investment of the Yangtze River Delta city group and a short-term positive effect on FDI.The empirical study by subsamples shows that the EPU has a greater negative impact on the economic growth and fixed asset investment of the central peripheral cities,and a more significant negative impact on the consumption and FDI of the peripheral cities,but a positive short-term impact on the consumption and fixed asset investment of the central cities.The conclusion shows that:on the premise of maintaining policy continuity and stability,the government should pay attention to the regional effect of EPU,the peripheral cities should speed up their integration into the central area of the Yangtze River Delta,and we should promote the coordinated development of urbans in the Yangtze River Delta.更多还原