【摘要】 为防范政府债务风险,减少城投债信用违约事件的发生,采用多元线性回归模型,选取2014～2016年新发城投债中7年期公司债为样本,将政府财政及债券等个体因素相关指标作为自变量,以宏观因素指标作为控制变量,分析中国不同行政级别城投债信用利差的影响因素。研究认为,债券个体因素对县、市和省级城投债信用利差均有显著影响,宏观因素的影响随城投公司所属行政级别升高而升高;地方政府财政因素对各行政级别的影响方向相同,由于城投公司资质存在差异,政府财政因素对低行政级别信用利差的影响显著;不同行政级别下,各类因素对信用利差的影响略有不同,城投公司债券发行信用利差与评级情况和发行规模都呈负向关系,系数绝对值随行政级别的升高而降低,企业自身财务因素影响并不显著。地方政府应大力发展经济使城投公司融资成本降低,投资者在投资前利用多种指标估算债券发行信用利差,城投公司也要注意合理设计发债规模,使自身融资成本达到最低,监管机构加强对低行政级别城投公司债券发行的监管和宏观经济方面的政策引导,以此促进解决城投债问题和推动城投债公司合理发行债券。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to prevent the local government debt risk, and reduce the occurrence of city investment bond credit defaults, this paper adopts the multiple linear regression model, selects the 7-year corporate bonds in newly issued city investment bond from 2014 to 2016 as samples, takes the relevant indices of individual factors such as government finance and bonds as independent variables, and macro-factors as control variables, and analyzes the influencing factors of credit spreads of city investment bond of different administrative levels in China.The study believes that the individual factors of bonds have a significant impact on the credit spreads of county, city and provincial city investment bond; the influence of the macro factors increases with the rise of the administrative level of city investment companies; the local government fiscal factors have the same type of impact on various administrative levels, but because of the differences in the qualifications of city investment companies, the government fiscal factors have a significant impact on the credit spreads of low administrative level. Under different administrative levels, the impact of various factors on credit spreads is slightly different. The credit spreads of city investment bond issuance by city investment companies are negatively related to the rating situation and issuance scale. The absolute value of coefficient decreases with the rise of administrative levels, while the financial factors of companies themselves have no significant impact.The local government should strive to develop the economy in order to lower the financing cost of city investment companies; the investors should utilize multiple indices to estimate the credit spreads of bond issuance before investment; the city investment companies should also pay attention to reasonably design the bond issuance scale, and lower their financing cost to a minimum; the regulatory organs should strengthen the supervision and policy guidance in the macro-economic aspect on the bond issuance of city investment companies at a low administrative level, in order to facilitate the resolution of the city investment bond issue and promote the reasonable issuance of bonds by city investment bond companies.更多还原