【摘要】 基于流域出口孙水关水文站流量资料,采用统计分析、趋势分析和突变分析等方法,分析了孙水河流域近60年来的径流分布特征和变化趋势;定量研究了降水和人类活动对径流变化的影响。结果表明:(1)流域年均流量年际变化较小,整体上呈现明显但不显著的下降趋势,以每年0.116 3 m~3/s的速率递减,其中流量于1997年发生了增加突变。(2)流域径流年内分布较为不均,主要集中在夏秋两季;四季流量变化中春冬两季下降趋势显著,分别以每年0.028 8,0.070 9 m~3/s的速率递减;而夏秋两季下降趋势较平缓。其中流量在1995年夏天发生了增加突变。(3)人类活动和降水变化是影响孙水河流域流量减少的主要原因,不同阶段二者对流量影响程度不同。其中1975年后流域流量减少主要由人类活动引起,影响率最高达89.16%。研究成果可为研究流域产流规律服务,并为西南山区防洪防旱、水资源利用开发等提供可靠依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The runoff data was collected from Sunshuiguan hydrological station located in Sunshuihe river basin, Liangshan Prefecture, Sichuan Province, China. The runoff distribution and its tendency as well as the effects of precipitation and human activities on runoff since the last six decades were analyzed by application of the methods of Mann-Kendall trend method, cumulative departure curve inspection method, and double mass curve method. The results showed that:(1) The annual average flow had an obvious but insignificant decrease with a rate of 0.116 3 m~3/s per year and a mutational point was observed in 1997.(2) The distribution of runoff was relatively uneven in each year, and the runoff was mainly contributed by the summer and autumn. The runoff significantly decreased in the spring and winter with a rate of 0.028 8, 0.070 9 m~3/s per year, while the decrease was not significant in the summer and autumn. The flow mutation occurred in the summer of 1995.(3) The decrease of flow in the Sunshuihe river basin was mainly caused by precipitation and human activities, and the effects of the two factors on the flow varied in different periods. The decrease after 1975 was largely caused by human activities, with the highest impact rate reaching 89.16%. The research results could provide a theoretical basis for the runoff rule study, flood control and drought prevention, and water resources utilization in the mountainous areas of southwest China.更多还原