【摘要】 随着大规模风电并网,同一风区内多个风电场共同运行成为常态,这就导致风电场出力有一定相关性,因此构建合适的风电出力相关性模型对于准确描述其相关特性是有必要的。建立了基于Copula理论的风电出力相关性模型,构建模型评价体系并对模型进行了拟合优度检验,并分析了所研究风电场之间的相关性特征,解决了相关性模型对变量服从线性和正态分布的依赖性。以辽北地区两座在地理位置相近的风电场作为仿真算例,仿真结果验证了所建立的模型具有很好的拟合效果和在描述风电出力相关性上的有效性、准确性及实用性。更多还原

【Abstract】 As large-scale wind power is connected to the grid, multiple wind farms in the same wind zone operate together as normal, which leads to a certain correlation of wind farm output. It is necessary to establish a suitable wind power output correlation model to accurately describe its related characteristics. In this paper, a correlation model of wind power output correlation was established based on Copula theory, a model evaluation system was built to test the goodness-of-fit of the model, the correlation characteristics were analyzed between the studied wind farms, and the correlation model’s compliance with variables linear and normal distribution dependence was solved. Taking two wind farms with similar geographical locations in northern Liaoning Province as simulation examples, the simulation results verify that the established model has a good fitting effect and is effective, accurate and practical in describing the correlation between wind power outputs.更多还原