【摘要】 出口关系生存率及其下降幅度起着衡量出口关系稳定性和出口风险的重要作用。基于CEPII-BACI数据库1995—2017年HS6分位出口数据,文章采用生存分析法估计了中国对"一带一路"沿线国家的产品出口关系生存率并计算了其变化幅度。研究发现:出口关系生存率较低且随出口时间下降。生存率下降幅度随出口时间大致呈下降趋势,前五年下降幅度较大,之后保持在较低水平。进一步分样本估计、计算,发现出口关系生存率下降幅度没有因产品异质性而存在显著差异,表现为:高出口关系生存率产品在前期下降幅度更小,后期更大。进一步依产品异质性分单位价值估计、计算,发现:在三种制成品以及差异化产品中,高出口关系生存率产品的下降幅度一直更小。在此基础上,就如何处理中国对"一带一路"沿线国家出口关系所面临的风险提供政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The survival rate of export relationship and the magnitude of decline in the survival rate play an important role in measuring the stability of export relationship and export risk.Based on the HS6 export data from the CEPII-BACI database from 1995 to 2017,the paper uses survival analysis to estimate the survival rate of China ’s export relationship with the "One Belt and One Road" countries and calculate the range of variation.The study finds that the survival rate of export relationship is low and declines over the duration of export.The magnitude of decline in the survival rate generally shows a downward trend over the time.The decline in the first five years was big and then remained at a low level.Further sub-sampling estimation finds that there was no significant difference in the magnitude of decline in the survival rate as a result of product heterogeneity,which manifests itself in the survival rate of a good product export relationship declining much less during the early period than the later period.With further estimation of unit value derived from product heterogeneity,it is found that among three manufactured products and differentiated products,the magnitude of decline in the survival rate of products with high-quality export relationship has been lower.Finally,the study provides policy suggestions on how to deal with the risks faced by China’s export relationship with the "One Belt and One Road" countries.更多还原