【摘要】 自2017年10月19日山西省临汾市尧都区发生M_L3.6地震以来,临汾-运城盆地表现为大范围的M_L3.0弱震活动,截至2020年6月20日M_L3.0地震平静长达974d。应用临汾-运城盆地内自1997年以来的M_L≥3.0地震目录,分析地震平静异常与异常结束后该区发生M_L4.5以上地震之间的关系。结果显示,M_L3.0地震平静异常超过1年,平静打破后的281d内在临汾-运城盆地有发生M_L≥4.5地震的危险,异常对应率为100%,且地震预报效能评分R值为0.65（R₀=0.52）和Molchan检验概率增益达到3,说明山西南部临汾-运城盆地M_L3.0地震平静异常预测效能明显,可作为区域危险性判定的依据之一。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the M_L3.6 earthquake occurred in Yaodu district,Linfen city,Shanxi province on October 19,2017,the LinfenYuncheng basin has shown a large range of weak earthquake activity of M_L3.0,with 974 days of M_L3.0 earthquake calm as of June20,2020.Based on the catalogue of earthquakes with M_L≥ 3.0 in Linfen Yuncheng basin since 1997,the relationship between seismic quiescence anomaly and the occurrence of earthquakes above M_L4.5 in Linfen-Yuncheng basin is analyzed.The results show that the quiet anomaly of M_L3.0 earthquake is more than one year,and within 281 days after the break of the calm,there is a risk of M_L≥ 4.5 earthquake in Linfen-Yuncheng basin,the corresponding rate of anomaly is 100%,and the R value of earthquake prediction efficiency score is 0.65（R₀=0.52）and the probability gain of Molchan test is 3,which indicates that the prediction efficiency of M_L3.0 earthquake quiescence anomaly in Linfen-Yuncheng basin in southern Shanxi is obvious and can be used as one of the basis for regional hazard determination.更多还原