【摘要】 不确定性分析对于识别、评估模型计算过程中主要误差来源及其对于计算结果的影响十分必要。为此,评估了广义似然不确定性估计(GLUE)在水动力模型中对大汶河下游大清河流域二维水动力模型计算结果不确定性的影响,并利用互信息法分析模型参数和边界条件对预测结果的敏感性。结果表明,糙率对于输出结果的敏感性最强,边界条件对于输出结果的敏感程度稍弱;GLUE方法可有效分析参数-边界条件的不确定性,其预测的不确定性区间对于实测值的覆盖率较高,但模拟精度有待进一步提升。更多还原

【Abstract】 Uncertainty analysis is important to identify and evaluate the main sources of errors in the process of model’s calculation and it has substantial impact on the calculation results.In this study,the impact of generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation(GLUE)on the uncertainty analysis of two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of Daqing River Basin in the lower reaches of the Dawen River is evaluated in the hydrodynamic model,and analyzed the sensitivity of model parameters and boundary conditions to the prediction results by using the mutual information method.The results show that the roughness is the most sensitive to the output,and the boundary conditions are less sensitive to the output.The GLUE method can effectively analyze the uncertainty of parameters-boundary conditions,and its predicted uncertainty interval has a higher coverage to measured values,but the simulation accuracy needs to be further improved.更多还原