【摘要】 全球变暖和剧烈的人类活动引起全球气候非平稳性,极端高温等气候事件日益频繁,已严重威胁到人类健康和社会经济发展。分别利用1960—2012年珠江流域43个气象站的年日最高气温和74种逐月大气环流指数分析流域内极端高温时空变化特征并定量探讨其影响因素。结果表明:①珠江流域年日最高气温总体呈显著上升趋势,2002年前后发生显著突变,变化周期为4.8 a,且存在2.0～5.8 a的振荡周期;②流域极端高温呈现出从西部向东部递增的特点,其中东部地区呈明显上升趋势;③对珠江流域极端高温具有重要驱动作用的4个指数分别为太平洋区极涡强度指数、西太平洋副高强度指数、亚洲区极涡强度指数以及北半球极涡面积指数,而北半球副高北界位置指数和亚洲纬向环流指数的相对贡献率最小。更多还原

【Abstract】 Global warming and severe human activities have induced the non-stationary global climate, leading to increasingly frequent climate events like extreme high temperature, which has seriously threatened human health and socio-economic development. This paper analyzes the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of extreme high temperature and quantitatively discusses its influencing factors by the annual maximum daily temperature of 43 meteorological stations in the Pearl River Basin(PRB) from 1960 to 2012 and 74 monthly atmospheric circulation indexes. The results show that:①The annual maximum daily temperature in the PRB showed a significant upward trend, with a significant abrupt change around 2002, a variation period of 4.8 year and oscillation period of 2.0～5.8 years; ②The extreme high temperature of the basin showed an increasing trend from the west to the east, with significant increase in the east PRB; ③Four atmospheric circulation indexes, i.e., the Pacific polar vortex intensity index, the western Pacific subtropical high intensity index, the Asian polar vortex intensity index, and the northern hemisphere polar vortex area index had important driving effect on the extreme high temperature in PRB, while the Asian zonal circulation index and the northern hemisphere subtropical high northern boundary position index presented the lowest relative contribution rate.更多还原