【摘要】 2018年12月3—7日在美国夏威夷召开的第九届世界气象组织热带气旋国际研讨会对国际热带气旋研究和预报预警业务的近期进展进行了充分回顾,并对未来的发展方向进行了系统研讨。过去4年(2015—2018年),在热带波动和对流对热带气旋生成的影响、复杂环境影响热带气旋路径转向的机理、对流和风垂直切变对热带气旋强度变化的作用机制、双眼墙形成和替换机理、热带气旋变性过程对环境条件的响应、热带气旋气候变化特征、热带气旋多平台观测技术等诸多方面的研究取得了显著进展。同时,在热带气旋生成概率预报、全球模式中热带气旋强度预报改进、热带气旋活动次季节业务预测技术发展以及热带气旋预报不确定性理论等方面也取得积极进展。在综述此次会议的相关议题后,简要讨论中国热带气旋研究和业务发展方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 The ninth World Meteorological Organization International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-9) was held in Hawaii, the U. S., in December 2018. Recent global advances in tropical cyclone research and forecasting and warning operations were thoroughly reviewed, and a corresponding outlook was illustrated in this workshop. In the past four years(2015— 2018),significant progress has been made in research on the effects of tropical waves and convection on tropical cyclogenesis, complex environments influencing tropical cyclone recurvature, the mechanisms of convection and vertical wind shear for tropical cyclone intensity changes, the mechanisms of concentric eyewall formation and replacement, the response of extratropical transition to environmental conditions, the characteristics of tropical cyclone climate change, and multi-platform observation techniques for tropical cyclones. In addition, there have been promising developments in the probabilistic forecasting of tropical cyclone formation, the improvement of tropical cyclone intensity forecasting in global models, operational forecasting techniques for sub-seasonal tropical cyclone activity and the theory of tropical cyclone forecasting uncertainty. The outcomes of IWTC-9 will be reviewed here,and the direction of tropical cyclone research and operational development in China will be discussed as well.更多还原