【摘要】 利用2009—2018年奉贤黄桃休眠—花期各物候期、同期气象要素及1980—2018年黄桃花期逐日日平均、日最小相对湿度等资料,用对比及数理统计方法对2016年影响黄桃开花坐果的主要气象致灾因子、39年花期相对湿度变化特征及其影响进行分析。结果表明:2016年黄桃开花始期—开花盛期遭遇持续6d日最小相对湿度小于等于30%的低湿天气,每天09:00—20:00各整点相对湿度的平均值小于等于50%,导致当年坐果大幅偏少。20世纪80年代以来,黄桃花期平均相对湿度、平均最小相对湿度均呈下降趋势,两者突变年份均为2000年,且3月下旬及4月上旬低湿天气出现概率高,提升了黄桃花期遭遇低湿致灾的风险。2009—2018年开花始期与5d滑动平均气温大于等于10℃首日(简称10℃首日)呈显著性正相关。建立基于10℃首日的黄桃开花始期最小二乘偏回归方程,拟合效果较好,为协同应对低湿天气提供预测服务。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the data of phenological stages of dormant,flowering and fruiting of yellow peach and the contemporaneous meteorological elements in Fengxian from 2009 to 2018,the daily averaged relative humidity and minimum daily relative humidity during the flowering and fruiting periods of yellow peach from 1980 to 2018,the main meteorological disaster factors affecting the flowering and fruiting of yellow peach in 2016 and the characteristics and influence of relative humidity during flowering and fruiting periods in 39 years are analyzed by contrast and mathematical statistic methods.The results show that in2016,from the beginning of flowering to the flowering period of yellow peach,fine weather lasted for 6 days,and the minimum daily relative humidity was less than 30%,and the average relative humidity from09:00 to 20:00 every day was less than 50%.As a result,a large decrease was induced in fruit setting that year.The average relative humidity and the average minimum relative humidity in the flowering period of yellow peach showed a downward trend since the 1980 s,and both mutation years are in 2000.The probability of low-humidity weather in late March and early April was high so that low wet weather increased the risk of extreme low-humidity disaster in the flowering period of yellow peach.The beginning of flowering period was significantly positively correlated with the first day of 5-d sliding average temperature being greater than 10 ℃ from 2009 to 2018,based on which the partial least squares regression equation is established and verified.It is concluded that the model performs well in dealing with low-humidity weather.更多还原