【摘要】 为揭示生鲜农产品价格波动对土地租赁行为影响,构建以土地租赁规模为决策变量的多周期随机规划模型。模型考虑农产品产出不确定性、租地资金与租地规模的约束,以农业经营者期望利润最大为目标。基于云南生菜种植和销售相关数据,计算不同情形下经营者选择租赁土地及规模的价格区间。结果表明,当农产品价格升高或降低到一定价格区间时,经营者选择租赁土地,且在该价格区间内,土地租赁面积只受可供租赁的土地规模和用于土地租赁的资金总量影响,不随价格变化而变化;租赁土地价格区间下限随劳动力成本增加而提高,随单位面积产量增大而降低。因此,生鲜农产品经营者在土地租赁规模决策时应采用定性与定量结合方法,密切关注价格、成本、需求、种植规模等信息变化,及时调整土地租赁相关决策,以提高价格波动下土地租赁决策的稳健性。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to reveal the impact of price fluctuation of fresh agricultural products on land leasing behavior, a multi-period stochastic programming model with land leasing scale as decision variable was developed. The model aimed at maximizing the expected profit of agricultural operators, considering the uncertainty of agricultural output, the financial constraints for land leasing, the size constraints of land available for leasing, and the production constraints of agricultural products. Based on the data of lettuce cultivation and sales in Yunnan Province, the price intervals of operators in choosing land leasing and scale under different circumstances were calculated. The results showed that the manager would choose to lease the land only when the price of agricultural products increased or decreased to a certain price range. In this price range, the area of land leasing was only affected by the size of land available for leasing and the total amount of funds used for land leasing, and did not change with the change of the price. The lower limit of the leasing land price range increased with the increase of labor cost, and decreased with the increase of unit area yield. Therefore, a combination of qualitative and quantitative decision-making methods should be adopted when making land leasing scale decisions. The information changes, such as price, cost, demand and planting scale should be closely monitored and the land leasing related decisions should be updated timely based on the information. Thereby, the robustness of land leasing decisions were improved under price fluctuation.更多还原