【摘要】 本文以SHEL模型为人误分类依据,用收集的2000—2017年的民航飞行事故及事故征候作为数据源,采用具有概率性模式特性的贝叶斯网络方法对影响飞行安全的危险因素进行了研究。研究结果表明:在SHEL模型的4个界面和人本身的问题中,操作不当、SOP不当、机组配合/沟通不当、不利的天气和违章是影响飞行安全的主要因素。更多还原

【Abstract】 Taking the SHEL model as the basis of human error classification, this paper uses the collected civil aviation flight accidents and accident signs from 2000 to 2017 as the data source, and uses the Bayesian network method with probabilistic model characteristics to study the risk factors affecting flight safety. The results show that improper operation, SOP, crew coordination/communication, adverse weather and violation are the main factors affecting flight safety in the four interfaces of the SHEL model and the problems of human.更多还原