【摘要】 我国原油供应对外依存度逐年提高,国际安全新形势下我国原油供应链的不确定性和中断风险进一步加大,提升供应链弹性成为保障我国原油稳定供应和炼化企业正常运转的关键。从抵御扰动全过程的能力视角解构原油供应链弹性,将其细分为吸收能力、适应能力和恢复能力并结合原油供应链结构,构建我国原油供应链弹性影响因素集;采用Fuzzy DEMATEL方法对20个影响因素及其相互作用关系进行深入探讨,得出供应源数量、供应源信誉、库存管理能力、管理层决策意识与能力、企业文化和资金支持水平6个关键影响因素。最后,提出新形势下我国原油供应链弹性提升的对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The dependence of crude oil supply on foreign countries is increasing year by year, and the uncertainty and interruption risk of China’s crude oil supply chain have been further increased under the new situation of international security. Improving the supply chain resilience has thereby become the key to ensuring the stable supply of crude oil and the smooth operation of refineries in China. This paper deconstructs the crude oil supply chain resilience from the perspective of the capacity to resist the whole process of disturbance, subdivides it into absorptive capacity, adaptive capacity and restorative capacity and combines with the structure of crude oil supply chain to construct the influencing factors set of China’s crude oil supply chain resilience. Then the fuzzy DEMATEL method is used to deeply discuss the 20 influencing factors and their interaction relationship, and 6 key influencing factors of crude oil supply chain resilience are obtained, including supply source quantity, supply source reputation, inventory management ability, management decision-making awareness and ability, corporate culture and financial support level. Finally, some suggestions on how to improve the China’s crude oil supply chain resilience under the new situation are put forward.更多还原