【摘要】 为制定科学、合理的主变压器检修方案,进一步节约检修成本,提出一种风险评估模型与全寿命周期成本(LCC)相结合的检修决策方法。该方法选择多台待检修主变压器,利用缺陷指数计算检修前故障概率从而完成风险评估,计算检修优先级;对优先检修的故障主变压器,通过引入役龄回退因子分别计算不同检修方式后的故障概率,进一步计算出不同检修方式后的风险值和LCC费用;最后,建立检修决策层次分析法(AHP)模型,得到最为经济合理的检修决策方案。算例表明,该方法能够综合考虑主变压器的检修风险及LCC,在有效降低检修风险的前提下提高主变压器检修效率,减小检修维护成本。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to formulate scientific and reasonable maintenance plan for main transformer, which can save the cost of maintenance, a maintenance strategy method combining with risk assessment model and life cycle cost(LCC)is proposed. This method selects several main transformers to be maintained, the probability of failure rate before maintenance is calculated by using defect index which can complete the risk assessment so as to calculatemaintenance priority. The probability of failurerate after different maintenance methods is calculated respectively for faulty main transformer with priority maintenance by introducing age reduction factor, further, the risk value and LCC cost after different maintenance methods is calculated.Finally, the most economical and reasonable way of maintenance strategy is given according to establishment of analytic hierarchy process(AHP)model for maintenance strategy. A calculation example shows the method taking maintenance risk and LCC into account is able to improve maintenance efficiency and reduce cost with the risk effectively reduced.更多还原