【摘要】 为减轻台风风暴潮灾害对上海沿海地区的影响,增强上海地区防灾减灾和应急处置能力。以金山区为例,基于ADCIRC(Advanced CirculationModelfor Oceanic, CoastalandEstuarineWaters)模式建立了适应于上海金山地区的高分辨率风暴潮数值模型,模拟分析了5种不同强度台风下金山区最大可能淹没与危险性。从社会和物理脆弱性两方面,运用GIS空间分析确定台风风暴潮灾害脆弱性等级。在危险性和脆弱性基础上,对金山区台风风暴潮灾害风险进行评估,计算并绘制出风险等级图。研究表明:当100a一遇台风(920hPa)叠加天文高潮登陆时,公用海塘段可能发生大规模海水漫堤,造成金山区除枫泾镇外的大范围淹没;台风风暴潮灾害高风险区域主要集中在山阳镇和石化街道,其他乡镇多以中低风险为主。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to reduce the impact of typhoon storm surge disasters in Shanghai coastal areas,and enhance disaster prevention, mitigation and emergency response capabilities of the city, we took Jinshan District as an example to evaluate the risk of typhoon storm surge. Based on theADCIRC(Advanced Circulation Model for Oceanic, Coastal and Estuarine Waters), a storm surge numerical simulation model withhighresolution was established for Jinshanarea.Maximum possible inundation extent and hazard offive ranks of typhoon storm surge were simulated and analyzed. According to GIS spatial analysis,typhoon storm surge disaster vulnerability assessmentsboth in social and physical aspects were carried out. Taking the hazards and vulnerability assessment into consideration, we calculated andassessed the riskspatial distributionof the simulated typhoon storm surgedisasters.The results indicated that when thetyphoon with a returnperiodof 100 years(920 hPa) superimposed on high astronomical tide landed, large-scale seawater overflowwould occur in public sections of seawallresulting in extensive submergencein Jinshan District except Fengjing Town.The high-risk areasoftyphoonstorm surge disastersmainly concentrated onShanyang Town and Shihua Street, while the other towns wereatmedium and low risk.更多还原