【摘要】 为揭示地铁运营中断后地铁沿线居住乘客出行行为的不确定性问题,基于累积前景理论(cumulative prospect theory,CPT)对受事件影响的地铁乘客的出行行为展开研究。根据事件的持续时长和影响范围,将其分为6种情形,并对应5种决策行为。以出行时间和费用的加权值作为参考点,推导出5种决策行为的出行成本计算公式。以上海地铁5号线为例,通过实地调查得到各出行行为的实际出行时间、费用及概率,计算在6种事件情形下不同出行目的和出行行为的累积前景值。研究结果表明:在不同事件情形下乘客的出行选择存在较大差异,出行目的是影响其决策的重要因素;当事件持续时长超过1.5 h且影响范围较大时,常规公交和网约车成为首选出行方式;乘客的实际选择与CPT的分析结果较为吻合,本研究所建的基于CPT的模型能较好地分析在事件影响下乘客的出行选择。最后,提出科学的应对策略以缓解事件的负面效应。更多还原

【Abstract】 To reveal the uncertainty of the travel behaviors of passengers living along the subway line after the subway operation disruption, the travel behaviors of subway passengers influenced by the incident were studied based on the cumulative prospect theory(CPT). According to the duration and influence range of the incident, there were 6 kinds of incident situations and 5 kinds of decision-making behaviors were proposed. Taking the weighted value of travel time and expense as the reference, the calculation formulas of travel cost of 5 kinds of decision-making behaviors were deduced. Taking Shanghai Metro Line 5 as an example, the actual travel time, expense and probability of each behavior were gotten through the field investigation, and the cumulative prospect values of travel behaviors with different travel purposes for 6 kinds of incident situations were calculated. The study results show that there are great differences in passengers’ travel choices at different incident situations, and the purpose of travel is an important factor influencing their decision-making. Moreover, regular public transport and online car-hailing service become the preferred modes of travel when the incident lasts longer than 1.5 h and the influence range is large. The actual selections of passengers are consistent with the CPT analysis results, and the model based on CPT can better analyze the passengers’ travel choices with the influence of the incident. Finally, scientific countermeasures are given to alleviate the negative effects of the incident.更多还原