【摘要】 基于CEPII-BACI数据库2002—2017年的HS6分位数据,以"一带一路"国家为样本,从贸易关系生存的视角,通过将美国、德国、印度和巴西作为参照国,对中国农产品出口增长进行了二元边际分析。结果表明:与其他主要出口国相比,在扩展边际方面,中国向"一带一路"国家农产品出口的关系数量迅速增长,出口关系利用率增速较高,但同时也伴随着大量已有关系的中断和新关系的进入;在集约边际方面,德国出口关系的生存情况优于中国,而印度的深化情况好于中国。二元边际分解结果显示,集约边际对出口增长贡献更大,而出口关系中断带来的损失不可忽视。在二元边际分解的基础上进行反事实分析,发现出口关系生存率的提高不仅可以促进出口额的增长,还可以提高出口增长的稳定性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the HS-6 digit data of CEPII-BACI database from 2002 to 2017,taking the Belt and Road countries as samples,this paper studies the dual margins of China’s agricultural product export growth from the perspective of trade relationship survival. First,the dual margins of China’s agricultural products export to One Belt And One Road countries is preliminarily observed with the United States,Germany,India and Brazil as the reference countries. The results show that,in terms of extensive margin,the number of China’s export relationship with the Belt and Road countries has grown rapidly,and the growth rate of utilization rate is higher,while at the same time accompanied by the interruption of a large number of existing relationships and the entry of new relationships; in terms of intensive margin,Germany’s export relations survive better than that of China,and India’s deepening is better. Second,the results of the dual marginal decomposition show that the intensive margin contributes more to the growth of exports,and the loss caused by the interruption of export relations cannot be ignored. Finally,on the basis of the dual marginal decomposition,further counterfactual analysis shows that the improvement of the survival rate of export relations promotes the growth of export value,and improves the stability of export growth.更多还原