【摘要】 "冰上丝绸之路"建设和船舶排放控制对北极航线的开发存在影响,新时期北极航线的经济价值研究应考虑这两点。基于船舶排放控制的事实,分解典型北极通航活动的成本和收益,利用成本效益分析法和灵敏度分析探究目前和未来北极航线的经济价值。研究发现:在排放达标的前提下,北极航线的运输成本和运输利润都较高,与传统航线相比只有微弱的经济价值优势;随着"冰上丝绸之路"建设的深入,未来北极航线的经济价值因过境费和保险费降低而激发,且受集装箱运价的影响最大,但当燃油价格越低时北极航线的经济价值越低。总体上,北极航线的经济价值潜力有待开发,未来需要有关利益方加强合作来推动北极航线开发,促进国际贸易繁荣。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the new era, research on the economic value of Arctic Route should consider the influence of the "Polar Silk Road" and vessels emission control. Based on the IMO regulations on vessels emission control, this paper disassembles the costs and benefits of typical Arctic navigation activities, and uses cost-benefit analysis and sensitivity analysis to explore its current and future economic values. The conclusions are: a) under the premise of vessels emission standard, the transportation cost and profit of the Arctic Route are relatively high, so there is only a slight economic value advantage compared with the traditional route. b) The economic value will be stimulated by the reduction of transit fees and insurance premiums, and most affected by the container freight rate, but weakened as the fuel price decreases. In general, the economic value potential of the Arctic Route needs to be developed, which needs stakeholders to strengthen cooperation and promote the development of the Arctic Route.更多还原