【摘要】 以吉林省为例,将区域综合承载力系统划分为经济、水土、社会、生态4个子系统。通过相关性分析和主成分分析对指标进行筛选,结合熵值法客观赋权,构建区域综合承载力评价体系。利用耦合协调度模型对4个子系统间的耦合协调程度进行了科学评价,并诊断出制约区域综合承载力的主要障碍因子。结果表明,区域综合承载力和子系统间的耦合协调程度总体呈上升趋势,且部分的耦合协调度变化和整体承载力变化呈现出一致性;水土承载力一直是制约区域综合承载力的重要因素,前期社会性限制因素逐渐转变成生态因素;洪水等自然灾害的发生,对各子系统均有不同程度的冲击,并对区域综合承载力造成巨大影响。对区域综合承载力进行科学评价并进行障碍诊断,为政策制定和吉林省高效发展提供科学依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Taking Jilin province as an example,the regional comprehensive carrying capacity system is divided into four subsystems, such as economy, water and soil, society and ecology. Through correlation analysis and principal component analysis,the indexes were screened and the entropy method was used to objectively assign weights to construct the evaluation system of regional comprehensive carrying capacity. The degree of coupling coordination among the four subsystems was scientifically evaluated by using the coupling coordination degree model, and the main obstacle factors restricting the regional comprehensive carrying capacity were diagnosed. The results showed that the regional comprehensive carrying capacity and the degree of coordination between subsystems are overall upward trend, and part of the coupling coordination degree and the overall carrying capacity changes show the consistency. Water and soil carrying capacity has always been an important factor restricting the comprehensive carrying capacity, the early social constraints gradually transformed into ecological factors.The occurrence of natural disasters such as flood, has different degress of impacts on each subsystem and has a huge impact on the regional comprehensive carrying capacity. This study makes a scientific evaluation of the regional comprehensive carrying capacity and makes an obstacle diagnosis, providing a scientific basis for policy formulation and efficient development of Jilin province.更多还原