【摘要】 针对可再生能源投入和大气污染物排放的区域电力系统经济运行问题,引入预测模拟技术和不确定性优化方法,构建了复杂条件下区域可再生能源系统的优化管理模型。该模型整合了支持向量机、区间规划、两阶段规划和机会约束规划方法,并应用于北京市丰台区电力系统规划。模型能够给出区间-概率下的资源配置、电力生产、大气污染物排放等规划方案。研究结果表明:丰台区的可再生能源发电量比重将高达36%,其将有助于实现电力系统由高碳型向低碳型转变;系统的管理成本和大气污染物排放量将随着系统违约风险水平的提高而降低,这将有助于决策者权衡系统可靠性和经济效益。更多还原

【Abstract】 With respect to the economic optimization of regional electric power system, an optimization model is developed with consideration of renewable energy input and atmospheric pollutant emissions under complex uncertainties.The developed model integrates support vector machine, interval programming, two-stage programming and chance constrained programming approaches. Then, this model is applied to the electric power system planning in Fengtai District of Beijing. Interval-probability solutions in association with resources allocation, electric power generation and pollutant emissions would be obtained. Results indicate that the proportion of renewable energy in Fengtai District will be up to 36%, which is conducive to transformation of electric power system from high-carbon to low-carbon. The system management cost and pollutant emissions will decrease with an increased violation risk, which can help decision makers in balancing the system reliability and economic benefits of the electric power system.更多还原