【摘要】 利用1972—2016年宁夏贺兰山东麓酿酒葡萄种植区气象资料及全球大气环流及海冰、海温资料,开展酿酒葡萄采收期降水及降水过程预测研究,并采用距平符号一致率对预测结果进行评估。结果表明:利用200 h Pa位势高度场、海温、海冰等预测因子建立的宁夏贺兰山东麓酿酒葡萄采收期降水预测模型距平符号一致率为67%,尤其降水空间分布一致偏多或偏少年份距平符号一致率达86%以上。进一步建立候尺度降水过程预测模型,其降水过程预测准确率为54. 2%,空报率为32. 3%,漏报率为13. 5%。更多还原

【Abstract】 The rainfall and its process prediction during wine grape harvest period were analyzed by using rainfall data in the east foothills region of Helan Mountain located in Ningxia during 1972-2016 and the atmospheric circulation,sea ice and SST data. Prediction results had been evaluated by using anomaly symbol consistence rate. The results show that the anomaly symbol consistence rate of the model established based on 200 h Pa geopotential height,sea temperature and sea ice prediction factors was 67. 0%,especially in concurrent rich or seldom rainfall years,it could reach 86. 0%. Further,pentad rainfall prediction model had been built,the forecast accuracy was 54. 2%,false alarm rate was 32. 3%,false negative probability was 13. 5%.更多还原