【摘要】 关于中国等发展中国家今后一个时期的增长前景,有多种多样的看法。普瑞切特和萨默斯提出的"均值回归说"是其中比较有影响力的一种看法。他们认为,中国和印度等发展中国家今后一个时期的增速很有可能大幅度降低到全球各经济体增速的平均水平上。在深入分析他们的观点后,本文指出他们用各个经济体之间增速差距是否可持续的标准,去判断单个经济体增速是否可持续,存在严重的误导。他们的"均值回归说"最突出的问题是忽视了后发追赶国家在技术水平追赶上发达工业化国家之前所具有的高速追赶潜力。发展中国家在追赶期的增长潜力的主要决定力量并非随机因素驱动的均值回归,而是后发优势这一结构性因素驱动的高速追赶。更多还原

【Abstract】 At the pessimistic end of the spectrum of opinions about growth potential of developing countries like China and India, the regression-to-the-mean hypothesis, used by Lant Pritchett and Lawrence Summers, is very influential. They argue that growth rate of China and India isvery likely to slow down to the level of global average soon. This article points out that their arguments are misleading in that they measure the sustainability of growth of an individual country by employing the criteria of sustainability of growth differences of different countries.They do not take into account the potential of high-speed catch-up of developing countries before their growth converges to that of developed countries. This article argues that the growth potential of developing countries in the catch-up process is mainly determined by the structural factor of latecomer advantage, rather than the stochastic factor of "regression to the mean".更多还原