【摘要】 针对"4+7"带量采购场景,同时考虑医疗机构的自信水平、参考点和损失厌恶3种非理性因素,建立了"4+7"带量采购模型。把参考点作为医疗机构自信水平的函数,既可考察其自信水平对订购量的影响,又能探析考虑参考点时医疗机构的最优订购量及利润随其损失厌恶水平的变化规律。研究发现,当参考点随自信水平变化时,医疗机构的最优订购量并不总是关于损失厌恶的单调减函数,对于低利润和高利润药品分别存在自信水平阈值β1和β2(β1<β2),当自信水平低于该阈值时,最优订购量及利润均随损失厌恶水平的增加而减少;反之,最优订购量随损失厌恶水平的增加而增加,利润先增加后减少。据此,针对"4+7"带量采购,给出了医疗机构和制造商的订购策略。更多还原

【Abstract】 For "4+7" procurement, such three irrational behavior factors as the confidence level, reference point and loss aversion of medical institution are taken into account, and a supply chain model is established in accordance with the real"4+7" procurement scene. The reference point is used as a function of the confidence level of the institution, which can not only examine the impact of the confidence level of the medical institution on the ordering decision, but also the law of the optimal order quantity and profit of the institution when considering its reference point. The study finds that the optimal order quantity of the medical institution is not always a monotonous decrease function with respect to loss aversion when reference point changes with confidence level. There are confidence level thresholds β1 and β2(β1<β2) for low-profit medicines and high-profit medicines respectively. When the confidence level of the institution is lower than the threshold,both its optimal order quantity and profit decrease with the increase of the loss aversion; otherwise its optimal order quantity increases with the increase of the loss aversion, and its profit increases first and then decreases. According to these findings,strategies of medical institutions and manufacturers are given in the "4+7" quantity-price-linked procurement scenario.更多还原