【摘要】 证据表明,COVID-19疫情中存在大量无症状感染者,这是医学研究者的新问题,也对非医学防控干预提出了新的挑战。基于具有周期性边界的SEIR空间传播模型,该研究通过多主体模型来模拟病原体在网络上的传播及不同干预措施后的发展演变。模拟表明,当存在一定程度的无症状感染者时,单独的社区监测或接触者追踪均不能取得好的效果。只有两种措施配合实施,才能最终遏制病毒蔓延,此结果对于当前世界各国的疫情防控工作具有指导意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 There is growing evidence that the current worldwide epidemic of COVID-19 has many asymptomatic infections.This raises new questions for the study of medical researchers,and it is also new challenge for non-medical interventions.Based on the SEIR model with periodic boundary,this study simulates the actual spread of pathogens and the interventions by multi-agent simulation.The simulations show that epidemic prevention and control can be feasible only with the joint intervention of the two measures when there are asymptomatic infections,one cannot leave without.Our results are of guiding importance for the prevention and control of epidemic situation in the world.更多还原