【摘要】 结合COVID-19实际传播规律,利用温州市COVID-19确诊病例数据、行政区划与人口统计数据构建了区县级LSEIR修正模型,进一步顾及空间异质性加权融合各区县预测结果,以预测温州市整体疫情趋势。结果表明提出的LSEIR修正模型参数求解结果与传染病动力学模型参数物理意义相符,预测温州市感染人群将于2020-01-26达到峰值,与公布的实际情况一致。以感染人数和新增移出人数同时为0时刻作为疫情拐点,预测3月1日为温州市疫情拐点。本方法能够较准确地预测温州市及市内各区县COVID-19感染人群和移出人群变化趋势,为相关政府部门更好地发现疫情传播规律、分析防控措施有效性和预测疫情发展趋势提供了模型支持与决策服务。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper,combining with the propagation regularities of COVID-19,we used the data of confirmed cases of COVID-19,administrative divisions and population statistics of Wenzhou city to construct a modified LSEIR model of district-county-level.On the basis of this,we performed weighted calculation of the prediction results at districts and counties to predict the trend of COVID-19 in Wenzhou City considering the spatial heterogeneity.The experimental results show that ① the parameter solution values are consistent with the physical meaning of the parameters of the infectious disease dynamic model.② The infeted people in Wenzhou City will reach the peak on January 26 th,2020,which is in accord with the published,actual situation.③ If the inflection point of COVID-19 is defined as the time when the number of infected people and newly removed people are both 0,we predict that March 1 st is the inflection point of COVID-19 in Wenzhou City.The method proposed in this paper can accurately predict the trend of COVID-19 in Wenzhou City and Districts/Counties,which provides model support and decision-making services for relevant government departments to better discover the propagation regularities of COVID-19,analyze the effectiveness of pevention and control measures,and predict the trend of epidemic.更多还原