【摘要】 在人民币经历2005年的汇率改革与2016年人民币加入特别提款权,中国进出口贸易经历2009年经济危机与2015年全球经济不景气到近两年中国进出口贸易恢复持续增长的背景下,研究中国进出口贸易对人民币汇率是否有影响以及对其影响程度。选取了2010年1月到2018年12月的月度时间序列作为数据样本,建立VAR模型对选取的月度数据分析中国进出口贸易额对人民币汇率的影响。实证结果分析表明,对人民币汇率变动影响较为明显的是中国出口贸易,而中国进口贸易对人民币汇率变动的影响并不明显。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the context of the RMB exchange rate reform in 2005 and the special drawing rights of the RMB in 2016, China’s import and export trade experienced China’s economic crisis in 2009 and the global economic downturn in 2015, and China’s import and export trade resumed growth in the past two years. Whether the import and export trade has an impact on the RMB exchange rate and the extent of its impact. This paper selects the monthly time series from January 2010 to December 2018 as a data sample, and establishes a VAR model to analyze the impact of China’s import and export trade volume on the RMB exchange rate. The empirical results show that the impact of the RMB exchange rate changes is more obvious on China’s export trade, while the impact of China’s import trade on the RMB exchange rate changes is not obvious.更多还原