【摘要】 本文利用1993—2016年数据,在马歇尔需求函数的基础上加入成本因素,采用协整检验和UECM模型分析了中国小麦、水稻、玉米、大豆的生产成本和贸易成本对进口影响.研究发现:中国粮食进口需求对生产成本、贸易成本、国民收入、进口价格具有长期和短期协整关系.生产成本、贸易成本及其组合作用在长期对我国进口国外粮食具有促进作用,即中国农业支持及进口管理政策实施没有扭曲国际市场价格机制作用,阻碍粮食进口.据此,中国在农业领域实施的相关政策完全符合WTO宗旨、《农业协定》相关规定及中国入世承诺.最后,文章提出调整农业支持政策、完善进口贸易措施和政策通报机制的建议.更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper uses Co-integration test and UECM model to analyze the impact of production cost and trade cost of China’s wheat, rice, corn and soybean on imports with the data from 1993-2016, based on the Marshall demand function with addition of cost factors. The study found that China’s food import demand has long-term and short-term Co-integration relations on production cost, trade cost, national income, and import price. Production costs, trade costs and their combination have a positive effect on China’s import of foreign food in the long run, that is, the implementation of China’s agricultural support and import management policies did not distort the international market price mechanism and neither hinder food imports. Accordingly, China’s relevant policies implemented in the agricultural sector fully abide by the WTO’s objectives, the relevant provisions of the "Agriculture Agreement" and China’s WTO commitments. Finally, the article proposes to adjust agricultural support policies, improve import trade measures and policy notification mechanism.更多还原