【摘要】 文章基于中国县级低保数据,采用空间统计分析方法,对低保人口分布特征及其影响因素进行了分析。研究发现:(1)低保人口规模在"胡焕庸线"两侧呈"西少东多"态势,83.5%的低保人口分布于东南半壁,低保率则呈"西高东低"态势,西北半壁的低保率达10.9%,东南半壁仅为3.9%。(2)全国低保人口规模和低保率总体呈下降趋势。低保人口总量由西向东递减,西部地区的低保人口总量占全国低保人口总数的比重呈上升态势,使低保人口的重心向西北方向移动。(3)低保率存在较强的空间正相关关系,且其空间集聚趋势在弱化,低保率的热点区与中国集中连片特困地区高度重合,且大部分位于"胡焕庸线"的西北半壁,冷点区域则集中分布在经济社会较为发达的渤海湾北岸的唐山到雷州半岛的东部沿海地区。(4)从影响因素来看,海拔对低保率有显著的正向影响,人均GDP和人均受教育程度对低保率有显著的负向影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on data of the people living on minimum subsistence allowance, the paper analyses the spatial distribution and its determinants using spatial statistical analysis method. The study finds that:(1) the people living on minimum subsistence allowance are distributed more in the eastern regions than in the western regions. Those in southeast regions account for 83.5% in total. Yet, the proportion of population receiving the allowance is higher in the western regions and lower in the eastern regions. The proportion is 10.9% in the northwest of"Hu Line"and 3.9% in the southeast.(2) The size and relative share of the allowance receivers decrease in general, and its total decreases from west to east. The proportion in the western regions tends to increase, which makes the center of gravity of the subsistence allowance move to the northwest.(3) There is a strong positive spatial correlation in the relative share of allowance receivers and the trend of spatial agglomeration is weakening. The hot-spot areas of the rate coincide highly with concentrated contiguous areas and most of them are located in the northwest of the "Hu Line". The cold spots areas are concentrated in the eastern coastal areas of Tangshan to Leizhou Peninsula on the north bank of the Bohai Bay, where local economies are more developed.(4) The rate of allowance receivers is higher in areas with higher altitude, and GDP per capita and education per capita have a significant negative impact on the allowance rate.更多还原