【摘要】 为更深入地研究商渔船碰撞事故的形成机理,根据商渔船碰撞事故的系统特点,引入复杂系统脆性理论。以12起商渔船碰撞事故的调查报告为数据来源,划分碰撞事故致因子系统并建立脆性关联模型;利用信息熵理论、集对分析方法建立脆性联系熵计算公式,采用突变级数法确定权系数;根据各脆性因子在12起事故中出现的频繁度确定其脆性关联性,计算出各子系统的脆性波动熵和脆性联系熵。依据脆性熵理论得出人的不安全行为是事故的主要原因,船舶行为的规范管理是避免事故发生的关键,为商渔船碰撞理论研究和实践指导提供一种新的方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 The concept of the brittleness of complex system is introduced to analyze the features of the collisions between merchant ships and fishing vessels. The brittle link model is constructed on the grounds of the brittle theory and the accident-causing factors extracted from 12 collision accidents between merchant ships and fishing vessels. The entropies of brittle link is formulated on the basis of the samples of the twelve collisions, showing that the human subsystem has the strongest brittle correlation with the collision system, and the vessel management subsystem has the largest value of fluctuation entropy. Safety measures are proposed accordingly for practical guidance.更多还原